💡 Episode Summary:
In this thought-provoking episode, Tim Maurer and Tony Welch explore a deceptively simple but critical question in investing: Is it more important to be right or to make money?
Drawing on lessons from Ned Davis and decades of experience in wealth management, Tim and Tony reflect on how rigid investment beliefs—whether passive vs. active, annuities vs. anti-annuities—can get in the way of what's most important: building portfolios that clients can stick with and feel personally aligned to.
They examine how behavioral biases like confirmation bias and overconfidence interfere with optimal decision-making, and they emphasize the underrated value of humility in investing.
🔑 Key Takeaways:
Being “right” isn’t always profitable. Effective investing often requires flexibility more than conviction.
Confirmation bias can blind investors to better options—even after their original thesis has been disproven.
Overconfidence bias—especially common among men—can reinforce mistaken beliefs and block the adaptability investors need.
The best portfolio is one clients can live with. It should reflect their identity, values, and be something they can stick with in both good and bad markets.
All tools have a place. Investment vehicles like annuities aren’t inherently bad; what matters is whether they fit the client's plan and needs.
🧠 Quote of the Episode:
“Humility may be the most underrated investing tool.” – Tim Maurer
📚 Referenced:
Being Right or Making Money by Ned Davis
Research on gender differences in investor overconfidence
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