Episode Summary: Tim Maurer and Tony Welch explore a deceptively simple question from AI researcher Nick Cammarata that famed investor Paul Graham called “the most inspiring sentence I’ve ever read”: If I had 10x the agency I have, what would I do? The conversation unpacks why most of us don’t even exercise the agency we already possess—and what that means for investors navigating markets they can’t control.
Key Takeaways:
The agency paradox: Behavioral research shows most people don’t use even their baseline (1x) agency. Fear of loss consistently overpowers the anticipation of gain, leading to what Tim calls “an active pursuit of inaction.”
What investors actually control: Tony outlines the real levers available—asset allocation, diversification, rebalancing, keeping costs low, and most importantly, how you react to market events. You can’t control the S&P 500, but you can control your response to it.
Sound design creates freedom: When the foundational elements of a financial plan are solid—protection, liquidity, living expenses covered—investors can release the need to control growth assets and let time do its work.
Locus of control matters: Research shows people with a high internal locus of control perform better academically and professionally, cope more effectively, and experience less depression. The same likely applies to investing outcomes.
Quote of the Episode: “We have a tendency as humans to wait, to hold off. We almost have an active pursuit of inaction.” — Tim Maurer
Resources Mentioned:
Paul Graham (Y Combinator co-founder)
Nick Cammarata (OpenAI researcher)
Locus of control research
The sunk cost fallacy and loss aversion
